By Anna Commander0ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.Republicans entered the 2026 election cycle expecting to hold ground in several traditionally red states, but recent primary results have complicated that outlook, according to The Cook Political Report, leaving the GOP facing seemingly tougher general-election contests in states that once appeared relatively secure.
In Iowa, Democrats' nomination of Josh Turek on Tuesday night prompted election analysts for Cook to shift the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
In Texas, concerns have emerged among some experts that the Republican nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton, could face a more competitive-than-expected challenge from Democrat James Talarico in the Senate race. Together, the races illustrate how primary season can reshape the electoral map—and narrow Republicans' path to victory in contests they were once heavily favored to win.
Read More on NewsTrump Admin Tensions: Bessent Says He Told Pulte He’d ‘Kick His Ass’3 min read
Reseller Platform Denies FIFA Collusion as World Cup Tickets Remain Unsold5 min read
George Santos Issues Statement on Insider Trading Allegation: Read in Full4 min read
What To Know
Democrats are attempting to retake the House and Senate in the upcoming November midterms, and the GOP holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats would need to pick up four seats to win control or three seats to tie, although Vice President JD Vance would serve as a tiebreaker.
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek on Wednesday, "Republican primary voters around the country are voting sincerely rather than strategically, embracing less-electable candidates to represent their party in the general election."
"It's hard to say whether any one of those gambles will go sour, but if we're thinking across the board, the GOP is almost certainly handing winnable contests to the opposition," Voss continued. "What we're seeing from Republicans and Democrats this year fits the usual pattern: Activists and insiders favoring the party in power get arrogant, while those in the political wilderness show more willingness to do what it takes to attract greater support."
Even as some races shift in favor of Democrats, President Donald Trump has maintained his power, landing key primary-related wins as Republican Senator Bill Cassidy lost his race, as did Republican Congressman Thomas Massie. Trump backed both of their opponents.
...Iowa Senate Shifts to 'Lean Republican' After Turek Win
Turek, Iowa state representative, secured his nomination on Tuesday night to be the Democratic nominee against Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson in the Hawkeye State's battle for U.S. Senate.
The Associated Press called the race for Turek at 9:42 p.m. Tuesday. As of 3:51 p.m. ET Wednesday, Turek had 62.7 percent of the vote compared to Zach Wahls' 37.3 percent, with 99 percent of the votes counted.
Jessica Taylor, U.S. Senate and governors editor, wrote in The Cook Political Report analysis on Tuesday in part that "Even though Hinson is a strong candidate who has amassed a formidable war chest, the overall environment in the Hawkeye State is an increasingly favorable one for Democrats given backlash to tariffs and rising fuel and fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran War."
"Additionally, as many as three of the state’s four congressional districts could be competitive, and the governor’s race is rated as a Toss Up. As such, we are shifting the Iowa Senate race to a more competitive category as well, from Likely to Lean Republican," Taylor later added.
The analysis notes, however, that Trump won the state by double digits during the 2024 presidential race and a Democrat hasn't been elected to the Senate there in 18 years. "Hinson still retains the early advantage," Taylor says.
...Texas Senate Race Downgrades to 'Lean Republican' After Paxton Win
Paxton won the Senate primary runoff race versus incumbent John Cornyn last week, and Cook moved the midterm race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
The Cook report ranks elections using seven categories, from "solid Republican" to "solid Democrat." The Texas Senate race was in the "likely Republican" category, one position away from "solid Republican." The move to "lean Republican" pushes the race closer to a "toss-up."
Trump boosted Paxton's campaign with a late endorsement after going months without backing a candidate following the March primary.
Taylor wrote in the report last week: "With state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s win in Tuesday’s Texas Senate runoff, national Republicans now have a candidate they’ve long assailed as the weaker general election nominee compared to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
"We agree with that assessment, and now that Republicans are saddled with a controversial candidate who’s been a weak fundraiser, we are shifting our rating from Likely to Lean Republican."
The report goes on to note Paxton's controversies including his wife divorcing him on "biblical grounds." "Given the national environment, this is a race that certainly may have become competitive even if Cornyn had won, but Paxton’s flaws warrant an immediate move to the Lean column," the report says.
Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek in part following the change last week that, "Again, our primary system makes it possible for candidates to win even though they can be widely seen as the weaker general election candidate. Cook is also looking at factors like fundraising performance and political baggage as well as issue stands in downgrading the Republican chances of retaining the seat. I still see Paxton as beating Tallarico [sic], even though Tallarico [sic] was the better general election candidate, in comparison with [Jasmine] Crockett."
...Alaska Senate Moves to 'Lean Republican' Before Primary
The race was shifted by the Cook report from "Solid" to "Lean Republican" after former Alaska Representative Mary Peltola announced her candidacy in January. On the other side of the aisle, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is hoping to secure the Republican nomination in a crowded field.
"With Peltola’s announcement, we are shifting our rating from Solid to Lean Republican, given her unique political stature in Alaska and her proven crossover appeal, but Sullivan still starts with the advantage in a state President Donald Trump won by 14 points," Taylor said in part in Cook's analysis in January.
"Peltola’s entrance is yet another major recruiting coup for national Democrats, who now have their most plausible path yet to a once out-of-reach Senate majority," Taylor said.
The state's primary is in August.
Cook Political Report Moves Numerous House, Senate Races
In early April, The Cook Political Report noted that it had shifted five House races toward Democrats and one toward Republicans.
The races moving in favor of Democrats are seats in Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and two in Ohio. The race that shifted in favor of Republicans is in Colorado.
Cook also moved House races in favor of Democrats in California and Texas after retirement announcements earlier this year. In January, a total of 18 seats were shifted in favor of Democrats.
View 0 Comments